David Ignatius casually mentions widespread rumors of a coming regime-change/coup/junta in Iraq, in his recent Washington Post column Beyond the Coup Rumors, Options for Iraq; other reporters also mention scheming among many Iraqi politicians fearful of a U.S. retreat. I hope lots of influential people including politicians, reporters, bloggers, and members of Congress are presently investigating and reporting these rumors, because, well, so much smoke means something's smoldering somewhere. Too often, elaborately orchestrated coups are carefully concealed by the small, powerful cadres which hatch them—until after the coup is a fait accompli.
Why the stealth? Because coups are illegal, immoral, undemocratic, and politically insupportable, at least before the fact. And also, because forgiveness is easier to get than permission.
If a coup in Iraq takes the predictable and dangerous course which fourteen previous clandestine American regime changes have taken in the past, it will be closely followed by a rabble-rousing pretext demanding immediate increased involvement to sustain that coup (see my review of Stephen Kinzer’s Overthrow: America’s Century of Regime Change from Hawaii to Iraq) ( http://www.epharmony.com/blog/_archives/2006/9/9/2311571.html ) or Chalmers Johnson's Blowback.
Historically, the concocted pretexts for expanded involvement after coups are well-publicized, highly inflammatory attacks and atrocities upon Americans or other innocents, flagrant events which incite the public to knee-jerk U.S. involvement, rescue, and/or revenge.
A planned Iraq coup could well coincide with upcoming congressional elections; it could also quickly be followed (after the elections, of course) with a massive troop buildup in the Middle East, as necessary to sustain it.
Because such actions are rarely the will of the American people, it would behoove responsible oversight members of Congress to immediately investigate the sources of these rumors, identify their planners, and subject them to close oversight examination or preventative legislation–before any such coup can be initiated.
David Ignatius hints at plans to overthrow the current, (somewhat) democratically elected Maliki government via a military coup or junta. He doesn’t say whether the rumored plots are supported by U.S. corporate interests or government agencies, although he alludes to commission-style juntas composed of neocon and Sunni-favored politicians.
Neo-cons may dream of another Hussein-look-alike henchman who takes brutal control of Iraq and re-establishes order, so that everyone (except, apparently, irrelevant Iraqis) can return to the golden days of yesteryear when oil gushed reliably and prices stayed low.
However, a coup would make no sense to anyone except the few currently ruling (and panicking) neocons, who may see this approach as the only way to achieve their vision of a colonialized corporatocracy in the Middle East, free of Bush’s irritating preferences for democratic processes.
Such a coup would be insupportable insanity. The U.S. cannot micromanage the future course of the peoples of the Middle East, as if we still lived in the age of empire of Attila, Alexander, Rome, Great Britain, or even the 20th century U.S. Our common twenty-first century planet is too small, too interconnected, too self-aware—and maybe finally just compassionate enough to refuse such an unrighteous solution.
People everywhere want to overcome the destructive selfishness and violence of the past, to live mindfully in peaceful, mutually-supportive diversity on our fragile blue planet. People everywhere want to work together with all other nations to solve the real problems of this century: the ravages of disease, injustice, hopelessness, hunger, greed, environmental degradation, natural disasters, ignorance, addiction, prejudice, nuclear proliferation, crime, poverty, war, terrorism, and yes, violence itself.
President Bush can still redeem himself in the eyes of history as the good old boy he means to be, but first he must stand up courageously and presidentially to his neocon friends and their misguided schemes. If Mr. Bush wishes to be remembered as a force for good, rather than a dupe for a tiny manipulative clique, he should go to work immediately with Congress and cabinet to cut short any planned coups, and to plan a thoughtful withdrawal of all U.S. troops and bases from Iraq.
During his remaining years in office, he has an opportunity to devote the $2 billion/a day we currently spend on war, toward brokering a lasting Middle East peace agreement. Then he can offer generous support to those regional leaders willing to compromise, together rebuilding a peaceful Middle East to their mutual specifications, not ours.
If President Bush wades deeper into an exploding Iraq now, to prop up a coup or to attend to certain blowback from it, he will waste his last two years, and all our money, not to mention vast swaths of American and Iraqi lives, on a futile, catastrophic, Vietnam-like last-gasp effort to impose narrow-minded changes upon a very distant, very old, and very dissimilar civilization.
If the coup rumors are ignored, Americans will wake up someday soon to news that a coup has already taken place (or has been disastrously attempted); that American lives are in danger; and that a far-more massive American military force must be rushed immediately off to Iraq. In just this way have fourteen previous regime changes secretly been engineered by past Presidents and their administrative and corporate cronies, all to American discredit, all at shocking human and material cost.
Once such jingoistic adventures get started on their mindless juggernauts, once demagogues begin feeding the public imagination with new reasons for new fighting, then an unending toll of new, unforeseen losses and enemies will make the widening conflicts almost impossible to stop. If a few right-wing zealots might welcome an “inevitable” Armageddon in the Middle East, the vast majority of Americans would not.
It would be wonderful if James Baker could visualize the shape of an eventual compromise following such a catastrophe, and be so bold as to broker that same compromise right now, before any more bloodletting.
But the United States cannot offer itself as an honest broker until we withdraw our own selfish corporate and national interests from the current struggle for resources and power being waged among those having fair, reasonable and moral interests in the Middle East—that is, those who live there. A peaceful regional solution cannot be “about” American interests. Our only interest should be the advantages to all of a lasting Middle East peace. When we relinquish our insistence upon regional control, and act instead as a wealthy, influential “outside” party, we can contribute greatly to a peaceful outcome, and earn back invaluable international respect and cooperation.
Having played Middle East control freak for too long, it may be difficult to lay our selfish material interests aside and let other agendas lead, but we must limit ourselves to offering only money and peaceful assistance toward the reconstruction goals of cooperative, peaceful regional leaders.
We owe David Ignatius a debt of gratitude for warning us about the possibility of coming reckless political adventuring. Whether bloggers, reporters, members of Congress or other influential leaders will rise to prevent such a tragic escalation…we shall see. For all concerned—and that’s all of us—Albert Einstein offered this startling observation: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but I know that World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
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